Effect of Climate Change and Adaptation Measures in Water Supply Sector of Nepal

Effect of Climate Change and Adaptation Measures in Water Supply Sector


1. General Background

Nepal is a land-locked country, bordered to the north by the People's Republic of China, and to the south, east, and west by the Republic of India, with an area of 147,181 square kilometers area and is commonly divided into three physiographic areas: the Mountain, Hill, Siwalik region and Terai Regions. These ecological belts run east-west and are vertically intersected by Nepal's major, north to south flowing river systems. Nepal is the world's 93rd largest country by land mass and the 41st most populous country having population over 28 million
Nepal is a country of highly diverse and rich geography, culture, and religions. The mountainous north contains eight of the world's ten highest mountains, including the highest, Mount Everest. The fertile and humid south is heavily urbanized. Most of the rivers are snow-fed and moon-soon rainfall occurs in June to September.

2. Ecosystem and Climate Change Issue

Natural environment and ecosystems of Nepal are diverse and vulnerable because it located in a geologically-young and unstable, rugged terrain in the Himalayas. These ecosystems are increasingly threatened by a rapidly-growing population that is putting pressure on the country’s fragile natural resource base, which includes land, water, and forest resources. With resource-dependent human settlements relying heavily on these ecosystems for their livelihood, the deterioration of the environmental and natural resource base has contributed to chronic rural poverty and migration to urban areas and other countries. According to the Stocktaking Report on Climate Change prepared under the National Capacity Needs Self-Assessment process, records of average national temperatures show high inter-annual variability, and maximum temperatures in Nepal are progressively increasing in line with global and regional records. Precipitation extremes show an increasing trend of intense precipitation, indicating that more weather-related disasters, such as floods and landslides, can be expected in future. Winter rainfall is in decreasing trend and drought periods is prolonging year by year.

It is estimated that the Himalayan mountains cover a sur¬face area of permanent snow and ice in the region which is about 97,020 km2 with 12,930 km2 volume. In these mountains, 10 to 20% of the total surface area is covered by glaciers, while an area ranging from 30 to 40% has seasonal snow cover. These glaciers provide snow and the glacial melt waters keep the Himalayan rivers perennial.

The Nepal's climate is projected to change because human activities are altering the chemical composition of the atmosphere through the build up of Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) primarily Carbon dioxide, Methane and Nitrous oxide.

3. Effects due to climate change

Climate variability and change are continuously ongoing and projected to impact different sectors in Nepal. Changes in hydrological cycle and the depletion of water resources are some of the top environmental challenges facing Nepal in the context of global warming. It is estimated that a temperature rise of 40 C can result in the loss of 70 % of snow and glacier area due to melting of snow and ice. This melt water will contribute to the faster development of glacier lakes, and this will lead to increased potential for glacier lake out burst flood hazards.

The expected impact on water resources includes water shortages in dry seasons, while rising temperatures will cause faster melt and retreat among Nepal’s 3,252 glaciers, with an attendant increase in sudden flooding following glacial lake outbursts. Communities are likely to suffer increased loss of infrastructure and shelter from flooding events, decreased productivity from more incidents of malnutrition and disease, social disruption and displacement from extreme events (e.g., floods, droughts, and disease outbreaks), and losses to earning capacity.

Global warming is anticipated to affect forest ecosystems through the migration of forests towards the polar region, changes in composition, and extinction of species. Forests of Nepal have been shrinking mainly because of anthropogenic activities. Present study shows that in future forests will have to face additional threats of Climate Change. According to Hold ridge vegetation classification, presently Nepal has 15 types of vegetation whereas there will be a only 12 types of vegetation under 2 x CO2 climatic conditions when there is a rise of temperature up to 5.80C.

Climate change will also have a direct impact on wildlife, with the species most at risk being those with low dispersal capacity (e.g., soil fauna, non-flying insects). The growing risk of mal Rising temperatures, glacial retreat, and changes in water availability and quality will also lead to changes in natural biodiversity affecting Nepal’s high number of unique wild animals and plant species and encephalitis are identified as potential impacts of climate change on human health.

In average Nepal's temperature is rising by 0.060C per year and is raised 1.80C with in the period of 32 years accounting from 1975 to 2006. Increases in seasonal temperatures are likely to affect agricultural production and yield. The yield reduction will be severe for all crops at 40C temperature rise. However, the potential yield reduction below the ambient at 40C will vary from 25 % to 33 % in the Terai, 11.3 % to 21.1 % in the hill and 3 % to 12.7 % in the mountain. Hence, mountain environment will be more favorable than the tropical flat land to cope with Climate Change phenomena.

4. Awareness in Climate Change

Stakeholders at both the national and local levels in Nepal are insufficiently informed about climate change, and the public’s environmental awareness in general is low. Nepal has no environmental information center, and important policy documents and information materials are unavailable in the local language. As a result, citizens do not adequately participate in environmental protection, and an environmental monitoring system does not yet exist. In addition, the country is unable to present a strong negotiating position at international floor, including the Conference of Parties, and meetings of the subsidiary bodies of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).

5. Effort to Address Environment and Climate Change Issues

Internationally, Nepal has also been active in the UNFCCC process and in the process of developing a national policy on climate change and the CDM issues. But, special political and socio-economic conditions and circumstances of Nepal time and again prevent the country from fully realizing the government's Climate Change related policy formulations. Its ability to understand fully the situation and the potential impacts and opportunities of abating the Climate Change risk is rather limited though. Any way now, Nepal is preparing National Policy on climate change. It is in draft form and is in under discussion.

Efforts have been made to integrate environmental concerns into national development plans and programs. These include:
(i) establishment of a ministry related to environment and climate change in the early 1990s
(ii) introduction of environmental impact assessments (EIAs)
(iii) promulgating the Nepal Environmental Policy and Action Plan
(iv) enactment of the Environmental Protection Act and Rules in 1997
(v) development of standards to minimize the adverse impacts of development projects
(vi) participating in the UNFCCC and National Adaptation Program of Action (NAPA) to understand the consequences of climate change
(vii) prepared Initial National Communication Report in 2004 and submitted to UNFCCC
(viii) Second National Communication Report is also in under preparation

6. Neglected Issues in Environment and Climate Change

Despite the above mentioned efforts, climate change and environmental issues are not given adequate priority in the national development agenda, and environmental governance is weak. Evaluations conducted under the National Capacity Needs Self-Assessment process (2008) confirm that the nature and gravity of climate change risks are not fully appreciated. Some issues to addressed are ;

1. There is inadequate public pressure for change, and more pressing national agendas overshadow effective environmental protection and climate change risk management.
2. Local governments are not provided the opportunity to participate in climate change risk management and decision making. Local governments do not have the capacity to collaborate with the central government effectively. There are no coordination mechanisms with clearly defined procedures to promote effective collaboration between the central and local governments, and among sector agencies, communities, and the private sector.
3. A key deficiency is the absence of any legal protection for environmental rights.
4. Environmental management agencies and organizations are facing lack of accountability due to ineffective monitoring mechanisms, inadequate input from local governments, and the lack of a citizens’ complaint mechanism regarding environmental degradation.
5. There is poor coordination among stakeholders responsible for climate change risk management and environmental protection. While environment and climate change affect all sectors, Nepal does not have crosscutting policies in place to govern them. Policy is drafted and still in discussion.
6. The high turnover of environmental professionals creates a lack of institutional memory and there is no system of knowledge transfer within organizations or among organizations.
7. Neither MOEST nor the other sector agencies are staffed to monitor and enforce current rules and regulations.
8. Most government agencies lack or inadequate resources to effectively address climate change risk and environmental protection.
9. There are multiple agencies and institutions at the central level that have a role in environmental management, but there is no single authority to ensure implementation and enforcement of environmental rules and regulations. There is strong need of Environment Department in the ministry with appropriate experts.
10. Part of the systemic problem is the lack of an environmental professional group or track within the civil service system. United Nations Environment Programme Poverty Environment Initiative will focus on comprehensively integrating environmental considerations into national policies and programs, and encourage policy makers to implement environmentally-sound strategies in selected sectors.
11. Technology transfer is an important mechanism to assist developing countries like Nepal to address Climate Change appropriately. Unfortunately, such a system suffers from lack of initiative on the part of developed countries.

7. Way forward to mitigate climate change

Lifestyle changes can reduce GHG emissions. Changes in lifestyles and consumption patterns that emphasize resource conservation can contribute to developing a low-carbon economy that is both equitable and sustainable.

Education and training programmes can help overcome barriers to the climate change and environmental degradation. Working staffs and all stakeholders should clearly understand the problems due to climate change and adaptation measures.

Changes in occupant behavior, cultural patterns and consumer choice and use of technologies can result in considerable reduction in CO2 emissions related to energy use in buildings.

Transport Demand Management, which includes urban planning and provision of information and educational techniques, which can reduce car usage and lead to an efficient driving style, can support GHG mitigation.

Renewable energy generally has a positive effect on energy security, employment and on air quality. Given costs relative to other supply options, renewable electricity, which accounted for 18% of the electricity supply in 2005, can have a 30-35% share of the total electricity supply. Climatically Nepal has high potential of solar energy, it can be used appropriately and serve people located in scattered rural areas.

Bio-fuels might play an important role in addressing GHG emissions in the transport sector, depending on their production pathway. Nepal is also trying to produce and use bio-fuels in recent years. Government should promote bio-fuel producers and users.

8. Adaptation to Climate Change in Water Supply Sector

As mentioned above, due to climate change water sources are depleting day by day. Ice melting process is also in a speedy way. In near future Nepal as well as world population will face very high water scarcity problems due to the effect of climate change.

In order to fulfill water demands in the future, we will need to rationalize on various means of capturing and storing water. Harvesting of rainwater should contribute in meeting the future water requirements sustainability in Nepal. The rivers and rivulets of the Nepalese subcontinent are mainly monsoon-fed, with 80 to 90% run-off generated during the monsoon. The principle source for groundwater recharge is also monsoon precipitation. The country re¬ceives more than 80% monsoon rainfall from June to September. Annually, the rainy days vary from 12 to 100, and actual total rainfall time in the season varies from a few hours to over 300 h. Incidences of up to 60% annual rainfall within a duration of a few days are not uncommon, which cause excessive run-off, taking a heavy toll of life, agriculture and property.

The inter-annual variability of the monsoon is expected to increase in the future due to possible climate change, making the monsoon less reliable as an assured source of water. Therefore, efforts are needed for more efficient groundwater recharge and harvesting of rainwater through identification, adoption and adaptation of technological options. Harnessing of excess monsoon run-off to create additional groundwater storage will not only increase the availability of water to meet the growing demand, but also help in controlling damages from floods.

To obtain better quantitative assessment of the climate change impact, it is imperative that more accurate ‘damage due to flood’ and ‘damage due to drought’ relationship should be established and updated periodically. This is especially critical in areas where rapid socio-economic development has taken place.

Providing adequate quantity and maintaining the water quality is of equal importance to ensure safe water supply not only for anthropogenic consumption, but also for the healthy survival of its habitats and aquatic life. Therefore, serious efforts and commitment are needed to protect the watersheds and their resources, so that water quality dete¬rioration would not become the limiting factor in deter¬mining the availability of water supply, thus jeopardizing the progress in social-economic development programmes in future. It is recognized that integrated water resources development and management for optimum and sustainable water utilization is an important and urgent issue to be taken up seriously, even without the occurrence of climate change impact.

From the above, it can be concluded that the Nepal is highly sensitive to climate change. The sectors currently at risk are likely to be highly vulnerable to cli¬mate change and variability. It is urgently required to intensify in-depth research and adaptation work with the following objectives:
• Analyze recent experiences in climate variability and extreme events, and their impacts on regional water resources and groundwater availability.
• Study on changing patterns of rainfall, i.e. spatial and temporal variation and its impact on run-off and aqui¬fer recharge pattern.
• Identify new flood levels via hydrological and hydraulic modeling,
• Study the impacts of climate variability and Climate Change on river flow regimes and on the ground water table as well as snow covered area in Nepal.
• Develop effective measures to manage and mitigate water induced disasters.
• Develop appropriate guidelines for sustainable management of water sheds and aquatic ecosystem.
• Prepare a ground water extraction and regulation policy.
• Determine vulnerability of regional water resources to climate change and identify key risks and prioritize adaptation responses.
• Evaluate the efficacy of various adaptation strategies or coping mechanisms that may reduce vulnerability of the regional water resources.
• The National Policy also advocated that anthropogenic climate changes have severe adverse impacts on Nepal’s precipitation patterns, ecosystems, agricultural potential, forests, water resources, coastal and marine resources.
• Large-scale planning would be clearly required for adaptation measures for climate change impacts in water resource sector, if catastrophic human misery is to be avoided.
• Involve communities in CC impacts monitoring and help them to employ appropriate measures;
• Promote cooperation and coordination of different sectors on Climate Change research and strengthening alliances for sustainable development.

9. Conclusion

Nepal as a country with no fossil fuel deposits has a vast potential for renewable energy like hydropower, biomass and wind. Hence, the country is well placed to meet most of energy needs from emission free sources. Because of this, Nepal is in comfortable position to take advantage of the global concern over Climate Change and CDM when Kyoto protocol charts a course towards clean energy mechanism development and sharing amongst the parties.

Research and scientific assessments play a vital role in improving the understanding of the potential impacts of Climate Change in Nepal with specific reference to their scale and timing. There is a clear need for a coherent national approach to provide the tools and organization to understand the impacts of Climate Change as opposed to continued reliance on individual agency initiatives.

Making development more sustainable by changing development paths can make a major contribution to climate change mitigation, but implementation may require resources to overcome multiple barriers. There is a growing understanding of the possibilities to choose and implement mitigation options in several sectors to realize synergies and avoid conflicts with other dimensions of sustainable development. Addressing climate change can be considered an integral element of sustainable development policies.

Efficient use of water resource, change of water use habit , recycle bathing water for other purposes and efforts are needed for more efficient groundwater recharge, extraction, regulation policy and harvesting of rainwater in town and rural areas is a most feasible alternative in the adaptation to climate change.

Sometimes there is common notion that the climate change activities are not important for developing country like Nepal. But we could not put any boarder or permission post to the world climate to inter in our country and it will effect us any way. There is no argument that, economic development policy of Nepal should not compromise with the policies to mitigate GHG emissions but Nepalese policies should try to tap the no-regret options that may exist within the economy and Nepal needs to prepare a host of projects that will be eligible for the CDM, and set up the national procedure for the certification of emission reduction trading.